The regression specification in columns 3–6 attempt to disentangle
the effect of high credit costs (measured by the credit
spread) from other recession related factors. Columns 3 and 4 indicate
that the effect of high credit spreads is broadly similar to that
of recession, although the magnitude of the results is smaller. The
insignificant returns for positive news are consistent with speculators
not being able to add to long net positions owing to higher
credit costs. Combining the recession and high credit spread factors
together in columns 5 and 6 reveals that the information provided
by the presence of recession dominates that resulting from
high credit spreads along. Again, this result suggests that factors
other than high credit spreads are at play during recession, or at
least they are during this particular crisis-led recession. One such
factor may be investors searching for a safe haven.