Mr Abe also stands to benefit from the post-Brexit-vote financial turmoil. The government can now blame external factors for its economic woes, which include deflation, flaccid consumption and sluggish wages. Before postponing a planned tax hike on June 1st, he warned of an impending economic crisis, and was roundly mocked. Now he seems prudent. Economic upheaval may make his campaign themes of stability and competence all the more appealing.
The opposition, meanwhile, has more to lose. Half of the 242 seats in the upper house come up for re-election every three years. The opposition Democratic Party (DP) still wields power in the chamber, with the seats it now holds, but it fared poorly in the 2013 contest. Michael Cucek of Temple University says that the upper house is the last place where Japan can plausibly claim still to have a real two-party system.