EXHIBIT 3-2 The "swinging ball" opportunity eventually pursued by the FroliCat team as first recorded in a sketch. This is an example of an opportunity that includes a potential solution concept.
addresses. For technology-based products, these dimensions can also be thought of as knowledge of the technology and knowledge of the market. These two dimensions are illustrated in Exhibit 3-3.
Because risk of failure increases as opportunities deviate from what the team already knows well, we can divide the opportunity landscape into categories based on the uncer tainty "horizon" faced by the team. Horizon 1 opportunities are largely improvements, extensions, variants, and cost reductions of existing products for existing markets. They are relatively low-risk opportunities. Horizon 2 opportunities push out into less known territory in one or both of the dimensions of the market or the technology. Horizon 3 op portunities represent attempts to exploit opportunities that in some way are new to the world, embodying the highest level of uncertainty.
Because of the need to launch a product within about a year, the FroliCat team explic
itly avoided Horizon 3 opportunities. The team wished to build on its initial success with the Bolt cat toy, and so focused on its existing customers and the existing needs it already addressed. It sought a next-generation solution for the existing need to entertain cats, and thus focused on Horizon 2 opportunities.