The Sanriku area, which the Japan tsunami of 2011 hit, consists of many inlets spread on approximately 600 km of coastline facing the Pacific Ocean. Fishermen villages are located in each small inlet, each with their each own gerontocracy association. Small towns located in relatively bigger inlets have town officers which govern small villages.
The basic concept of reconstruction by the Japanese government is described as follows: (1) building of higher seawalls; (2) evacuation of residents from tsunami hit areas and compensation for moving to higher land elevations; (3) utilization of evacuated lowlands as industrial areas or public parks.
However, this policy concept caused delay of reconstruction and had some noticeable negative effects, which includes decrease in the population of younger people, decline of local industries, and the emergence of a construction bubble economy that depends on public works in Sanriku. In sum, the policy caused graying of the population, polarization, and moral hazard. A member of a supporting NGOs said that the future of this area would be dot's of small communities of poor elders without any industries.
This situation originated from two social problems. The first is the mismatch of policy concept and social reality. The concept and legal system for disaster reconstruction which were established in the 1960's, the era of economic and demographic development in Japan, do not suit the contemporary situation.
The second problem is lack of bottom-up democracy. The administrative structure is comprised of communities ruled by gerontocracy which are authorized and supported by the local administration, and which are then supported by the central government. Such hierarchical system easily causes moral hazard and dependency because it does not have bottom-up feedback.
In conclusion, disasters may accelerate basic trends that excited before these happen. Graying of the population, decline of local industries, dependence on public works, lack of democracy, and mismatch between policy and reality all existed before the tsunami affected Japanese society. Disasters give us chances to analyze society and forecast it's future.