Hence, for the foreseeable future, the CIS should remain Russian Federation’s significant foreign policy priority. Relations between Russia and the independent states that emerged on the breakup of the Soviet Union will change. But due to geographical proximity, occasional ethnic and cultural commonality, and close historical links, especially in the periods of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union, this relationship is likely to retain its particular character.
Nevertheless, during the third decade since the split, the exclusiveness in relations between Russia and the former border republics will continue to diminish. As a result, most CIS states, perceived by many in Russia as separate but not really foreign, will gradually shift to the overseas category, as has already happened with the Baltic states. Naturally, most Russians should continue to regard certain CIS countries, primarily Belarus and Ukraine (especially its east and south) as more kindred than, for example, Poland or Slovakia. On the other hand, public consciousness will increasingly associate Transcaucasia and the Central Asian states with their neighbors outside the former USSR.