Case study 1.1: Global Warming
Part I: What to do about global warming1
A UN treaty now under discussion looks promising –
as long as it remains flexible
How should reasonable people react to the hype and
controversy over global warming? Judging by recent
headlines, you might think we are already doomed.
Newspapers have been quick to link extreme
weather events, ranging from floods in Britain and
Mozambique to hurricanes in Central America,
directly to global warming. Greens say that worse will
ensue if governments do not act. Many politicians
have duly jumped on the bandwagon, citing recent
disasters as a reason for speeding up action on the
Kyoto treaty on climate change that commits rich
countries to cut emissions of greenhouse gases. This
week saw the start of a summit in The Hague to
discuss all this.
Yet hot-headed attempts to link specific weather
disasters to the greenhouse effect are scientific bunk.
The correct approach is coolly to assess the science of
climate change before taking action. Unfortunately,
climate modelling is still in its infancy, and for most of
the past decade it has raised as many questions as it
has answered. Now, however, the picture is getting
clearer. There will never be consensus, but the
balance of the evidence suggests that global warming
is indeed happening; that much of it has recently
been man-made; and that there is a risk of potentially
disastrous consequences. Even the normally stolid
insurance industry is getting excited. Insurers reckon
that weather disasters have cost roughly $400 billion
over the past decade and that the damage is likely
only to increase. The time has come to accept that
global warming is a credible enough threat to require
a public-policy response.