Without the ideological divides of the Cold War, old disputes and separatist
forces have resurfaced. Intra-state conflicts along ethnic and religious
lines have broken out with horrific consequences, as in Bosnia and
Rwanda. And then there are the upheavals and unrest that come with
political transitions, such as in Cambodia and East Timor. The impact of
intra-state political and social unrest is not always contained within
national borders; they sometimes spill over to affect the security of
neighbouring states.
There are also many unresolved territorial and boundary issues in the
Asia-Pacific region that could lead to conflict. The situation in the Korean
Peninsula continues to be a source of concern. Another potential area of
conflict is the Spratly Islands, which are claimed wholly or in part by six
parties. Cross-Taiwan Straits relations have not settled down, and continue
to be a major impediment to any significant improvement in US-China
relations. Any one of these issues, if not managed well, could escalate
and have adverse consequences for regional stability.
Other types of conflicts can also emerge in the new century. For instance,
the competition for resources is likely to grow sharper as Asia-Pacific
economic growth regains momentum. Resource scarcities could trigger
future conflicts over access to or ownership of vital resources such as oil,
energy, water and maritime resources.
The growing proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and
their delivery systems also poses a grave security threat. The spread of
nuclear, biological and chemical weapons has an adverse impact on the
non-proliferation regime and could unleash an arms race. If they become
more widely available, the risk that they may be used in unstable, tensionridden
areas will increase.
Unconventional threats in the form of terrorist acts and subversion will
continue to be a potential danger. Some of these threats may be targeted at
third countries or parties, but the SAF may be called upon to deal with them
because they take place in Singapore or Singaporean assets are involved.
The SAF may also have to deal with low intensity conflicts and attacks aimed