Profits Peaked
Global economic growth may be “well below” investors’ consensus, companies’ operating margin has “essentially peaked” in the U.S., and credit quality will worsen, Mcvey wrote.
The yuan could decline between 5 percent and 10 percent this year as the world’s second-biggest economy slows, dragging other emerging-market currencies down, he said. KKR, which oversees $99 billion in assets as of September, expects the South Korean won and Singapore dollar will fall against the U.S. currency.
Mcvey, who previously worked as chief investment strategist at Morgan Stanley, raised U.S. equities to overweight on Sept. 8 to take advantage of a selloff sparked by a shock devaluation of the yuan. In fact, the S&P 500 rose about 5 percent by the end of the year.
He also told investors in May to stay away from most of the publicly traded emerging-market companies, another timely call.