Holger Herwig (2001, p. 115), a military historian writing about the rise of the modern battleship, comments, “Revolutionary change maximizes uncertainty and risk. Success is never guaranteed. New weapons demand new habits, new thinking, and new training. Enemy unpredictability, weather, friction, and the uncertainties inherent in battle are quite
daunting enough without inviting further confusion through novelties of uncertain value.” The same innovation dilemma lies behind creativity in any number of strategic arenas: There are sizable payoffs but sizable risks, sometimes capable of threatening the survival of the player or even of the arena. Each strategic player has sufficient agency to try to change the
world, but other players have enough agency, in turn, so that the original innovation rarely turns out as hoped.