The city of Stockton, California filed for Chapter 9 bankruptcy in 2012 — the largest city in U.S. history to do so at that time. Soon after, the city of Detroit became the largest city to file for bankruptcy protection.
The president of the New York Federal Reserve, William Dudley, recently gave the opening remarks at a conference discussing Chapter 9 bankruptcy and other alternatives for distressed municipalities.
It should be noted that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is the most powerful member bank of the Federal Reserve. The president of the New York Fed is always granted a seat at the Federal Open Market Committee (unlike the other regional banks that rotate) and serves as the alternate chair of the FOMC.
Dudley’s opening speech warned of the dangers of other municipalities following in Stockton and Detroit's footsteps. He pointed out the risks of using debt to finance operating deficits, as opposed to using debt for infrastructure and productive assets.
He pointed in particular to underfunded pensions. He doesn’t quite say it like this, but politicians are making promises to today’s voters to buy votes, and they will let somebody in the future worry about the problem. It is easy for a politician to promise a big pension to government employees 20 years down the road. The problem is that 20 years pass before you know it, and you end up with something like Detroit.
While Dudley didn’t specifically mention any other cities, Chicago has major fiscal problems, and it would not be surprising for it to take over Detroit as the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. It is hard to say if Dudley is giving a warning of what to expect or if he is trying to prevent this from happening.
Either way, it is rather ironic coming from a major Fed official. Overall, his remarks are quite accurate, and his warnings should be taken seriously. But talk about needing to look in the mirror...
Dudley stated, “The municipal bond market is very large, with outstanding issues totaling over $3.5 trillion.”
Has he considered the U.S. national debt that is currently over $18 trillion? Has he considered the federal unfunded liabilities, mostly made up of Medicare and Social Security, that some estimate to be over $200 trillion?
While many city and state governments have certainly overpromised many government employees on what to expect in retirement, the U.S. government has overpromised an entire generation of Americans... or more.
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