The exploratory Southern Region fishing in Peru that was to have started on the 12th did not get going due to very bad weather, so there is a risk that the new fishing in the south may be delayed beyond the expected start date on the 26th. The Northern cruise is progressing just fine.
Word from the Peruvian government is that production of industrial fishing could increase by 30% over last year which may just mean that for 2015 the quota could go as high as 3 million m/t. However, for the moment, this is only wishful thinking until there is some official word from the government. The trade seems to feel that the first Northern quota will have to be at least 2 million m/t but some say up to 2.5 million is possible.
Needless to say all these very positive quota estimates are making buyer hold off as much as possible on buying any fishmeal from any origin as they can see the prices come tumbling down in coming weeks.
The IFFO was saying this week that they are looking for a good 2015, with fishmeal supplies probably getting back up closer to the longer term average after a couple of years of very low production. Of course this all depends on Peru – the largest fishmeal producer by far – where the new season quotas will be setting the trend for the production and the prices for 2015.
So, for fishmeal buyers, if you can hold out for a few weeks, you should see much better prices for fishmeal.