These myriad worries explain why for years it was rumoured that at the time of the succession members of Bangkok’s elite would seek to keep the crown prince from the throne. One idea was that they might instead secure the succession for his sister, Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn, who is a more plausible example of the virtues of devotion and abstemiousness which Thailand’s monarch is supposed to personify. Yet among other obstacles this plan would have required defying King Bhumibol’s apparent preference for his only son to succeed him. Such inflammatory tinkering always seemed destined to create more problems than it solved.
That has certainly appeared to be the opinion of the ruling junta. Ostensibly its coup was launched to end months of middle-class protests against the government of Ms Yingluck. But it was doubtless also motivated by fears that the succession could be disorderly—and by the keenness of army leaders to make sure their own positions were secure under any new regime.
The junta has been preparing for the succession by whipping up royalist sentiment, including by building colossal statues of historical kings on army land not far from Bangkok. The military courts have handed sentences as long as 30 years to unfortunates accused of bad-mouthing the monarch, queen or prince. They have seemed to want to scrub the crown prince’s reputation, including by involving him in two star-studded charity bike rides. The prince’s face has appeared, often alongside his father’s, on more and more roadside billboards.
Regal eagles
The conclusion many people draw from this is that the generals and the crown prince have come to some kind of accommodation about what Thailand should look like now that King Bhumibol has left the scene. If so, the chance of friction between the new powers in the palace and the wider Bangkok establishment is minimal. Whether that changes in the long run depends on whether the crown prince ends up being a largely silent sovereign, or an active one—and if the latter, quite what form his interventions will take.