a b s t r a c t
Downscaling simulations performed with theWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were used
to determine the large-scale wind energy potential of Iceland. Local wind speed distributions are represented
by Weibull statistics. The shape parameter across Iceland varies between 1.2 and 3.6, with the
lowest values indicative of near-exponential distributions at sheltered locations, and the highest values
indicative of normal distributions at exposed locations in winter. Compared with summer, average power
density in winter is increased throughout Iceland by a factor of 2.0e5.5. In any season, there are also
considerable spatial differences in average wind power density. Relative to the average value within
10 km of the coast, power density across Iceland varies between 50 and 250%, excluding glaciers, or
between 300 and 1500 W m2 at 50 m above ground level in winter. At intermediate elevations of 500
e1000 m above mean sea level, power density is independent of the distance to the coast. In addition to
seasonal and spatial variability, differences in average wind speed and power density also exist for
different wind directions. Along the coast in winter, power density of onshore winds is higher by 100
e700 W m2 than that of offshore winds. Based on these results, 14 test sites were selected for more
detailed analyses using the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP).