6. Influence of the business cycle on the news – return relationship
The previous section found evidence to support the notion that
the news-return relationship is driven by institutional constraints.
Since trading in futures (as in any financial asset) is dependent on
access to credit, the cost and availability of credit may impact the
behaviour of traders through the imposition of additional constraints
on their trading positions. In turn, this may influence the
way in which gold futures respond to news sentiment over the
course of the business cycle.
I investigate whether news sentiment and trader positions are
influenced by the macroeconomic variables suggested by
Bessembinder and Chan (1992) as factors in futures pricing. The
identified factors include changes in interest rates as determined
by 3-month treasury bills, changes in the credit spread, and
changes in the dividend yield of the S&P 500. The results reported
in Table 6 suggest that news sentiment is significantly more negative
when the credit spread is increasing, and when the dividend
yield is increasing. A tightening credit market and rising dividend
yield (commonly a result of falling stock markets) are generally
consistent with a recessionary environment. The credit spread
has a significant negative relationship with the net position of
speculators, suggesting that as credit becomes more expensive
they are forced to take smaller positions. The opposite is true of
hedgers which suggests that they may be less constrained by credit
costs, since margin requirements are smaller owing to the fact that
hedgers also produce the physical asset