the bank’s every statement is pored over by the markets for signs of future policy changes, so the publication of out-of-the-box thinking might only lead to confusion in investors’ minds. On the other hand, the central bank may well need fresh thinking to get its forecasts right. The big new hope for monetary policy is “forward guidance”—a steer from the bank on the outlook for interest rates two years, rather than just one month, ahead. Forward guidance is useless if the bank has no better vision of the future than a funfair psychic.