Expressions (1) and (2) imply that the ability to predict earnings and book value--even over a finite horizon-is tantamount to the ability to approximate current value. It thus gives us license to reframe the objective of our research in terms of predicting future earnings and book value. It also supplies the specific functional form of future earnings and book value that should be the object of prediction. We appear to have skirted the dividend conundrum, and we have done so without introducing the circularity of understanding firm value only through reference to prices. We are, in fact, attacking the task in the same way the fundamental analyst must: by estimating value, using information independent of price.
The reader may detect what appears to be some sleight of hand here. Whether anything has been gained in our shift from dividend prediction,
to price explanation, and then on to earnings prediction depends on the length of the horizon over which earnings must be predicted, that is, the magnitude of T in expressions (1) and (2). To emphasize how trivial the gain could be in the extreme, assume earnings of each period are equal to
Expressions (1) and (2) imply that the ability to predict earnings and book value--even over a finite horizon-is tantamount to the ability to approximate current value. It thus gives us license to reframe the objective of our research in terms of predicting future earnings and book value. It also supplies the specific functional form of future earnings and book value that should be the object of prediction. We appear to have skirted the dividend conundrum, and we have done so without introducing the circularity of understanding firm value only through reference to prices. We are, in fact, attacking the task in the same way the fundamental analyst must: by estimating value, using information independent of price.The reader may detect what appears to be some sleight of hand here. Whether anything has been gained in our shift from dividend prediction,to price explanation, and then on to earnings prediction depends on the length of the horizon over which earnings must be predicted, that is, the magnitude of T in expressions (1) and (2). To emphasize how trivial the gain could be in the extreme, assume earnings of each period are equal to
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