In practical terms, an average person
which will reach a given age x in 2060 will be assumed to have the same level of
morbidity, and therefore use the same amount of health care as does today a person of
age x-n, where n is the increase in life expectancy at the age of x between now and year
2060. Obviously, this increase is the highest for the youngest cohorts (EU27 average
increase of 8.5 years for a new-born male and 6.9 years for a new-born female) and
decreases gradually with age. Still, given quite steep profile of per-capita spending for
the older cohorts (increase from 8-9% of GDP per capita for the cohort 60-64 to 19%
(females) and 21% (males) of GDP per capita for the cohort 90-94), a reduction in per
capita spending corresponding to a 5-5.5 year gap (which is an average increase in life
expectancy at age 65) will amount to an considerable amount of 2% of GDP per capita37.