Oil Market Outlook
Oil prices finished last week with the bititutst two-day era slump to a advance in more than seven yea rw prompted tuyiogio cover record high short ons in the market. e fundamental problems underlying low o prices are not going away anytime soon, analysts warn. They ude slowing growth China demand, as we as the prospect of newly sanctions-free ng more oil into nn oversupplied murket. by $2.17 per barrel West Texas Interme last week rose $32.19 d Brent gained $324 to $32.18 However, Dubai crude, the benchmark in Sou east Asi crashed to $23 amid concerns abo new exports from iran Thaioil fore asts at WTI this week w move within the range of rade between $27 and 534, Prices and $35, while Bre ill receive support from heating fuel demand as a huge winter storm pounds the east coast of the US. Among the factors expected to influence trade Hopes for new economic stimulus in Europe and lapan have lifted sentiment for commodities including oil. Euro pean Central Bank President Mario Draghi acknowledged that the weak euro zone recovery probably needed an extra push, which the ECB could deliver at its next meeting in March. The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, will review its asset purchase plan later this w week. Action would be positive for the global economy but there would be no fundamental change in the oil market The massive US stormand forecasts offreezingtemper atures are lifting heating oil and natural gas prices. Higher demand could help reduce regional inventories for middle distillates including diesel and heating oil, which are still 25% above their 10-year average m As Iran continues to press ahead with plans to export between 300,000 and 500,000 bpd of crude oil within the first half of this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that the global glut will last to the end of 2016 and beyond. However, it sees demand growth slowing to 1.2 million bpd, from 1.8 million last year Meanwhile, the non-Opec supply is expected to contract by 600,000 bpd. Traders will continue to watch China where official figures showed GDP last year grew by 6.9%, the lowest in 25 years but in line with expectations of both the market and Beijing policymakers. Still, many analysts think the government might feel the need to respond with more stimulus or further depreciation of the yuan to maintain some growth momentum. wThe IMF has lowered its world economic growth fore- cast by 0.2 points to 3.4% in 2016 and 3.6% in 2017. It sees China slowing to 6.3% this year and 6.0% next year. Economic indicators to watch include US consumer confidence, new home sales, initial jobless claims, pend ing home sales, and fourth-quarter GDP; and euro zone consumer prices
โน้มตลาดน้ำมันOil prices finished last week with the bititutst two-day era slump to a advance in more than seven yea rw prompted tuyiogio cover record high short ons in the market. e fundamental problems underlying low o prices are not going away anytime soon, analysts warn. They ude slowing growth China demand, as we as the prospect of newly sanctions-free ng more oil into nn oversupplied murket. by $2.17 per barrel West Texas Interme last week rose $32.19 d Brent gained $324 to $32.18 However, Dubai crude, the benchmark in Sou east Asi crashed to $23 amid concerns abo new exports from iran Thaioil fore asts at WTI this week w move within the range of rade between $27 and 534, Prices and $35, while Bre ill receive support from heating fuel demand as a huge winter storm pounds the east coast of the US. Among the factors expected to influence trade Hopes for new economic stimulus in Europe and lapan have lifted sentiment for commodities including oil. Euro pean Central Bank President Mario Draghi acknowledged that the weak euro zone recovery probably needed an extra push, which the ECB could deliver at its next meeting in March. The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, will review its asset purchase plan later this w week. Action would be positive for the global economy but there would be no fundamental change in the oil market The massive US stormand forecasts offreezingtemper atures are lifting heating oil and natural gas prices. Higher demand could help reduce regional inventories for middle distillates including diesel and heating oil, which are still 25% above their 10-year average m As Iran continues to press ahead with plans to export between 300,000 and 500,000 bpd of crude oil within the first half of this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that the global glut will last to the end of 2016 and beyond. However, it sees demand growth slowing to 1.2 million bpd, from 1.8 million last year Meanwhile, the non-Opec supply is expected to contract by 600,000 bpd. Traders will continue to watch China where official figures showed GDP last year grew by 6.9%, the lowest in 25 years but in line with expectations of both the market and Beijing policymakers. Still, many analysts think the government might feel the need to respond with more stimulus or further depreciation of the yuan to maintain some growth momentum. wThe IMF has lowered its world economic growth fore- cast by 0.2 points to 3.4% in 2016 and 3.6% in 2017. It sees China slowing to 6.3% this year and 6.0% next year. Economic indicators to watch include US consumer confidence, new home sales, initial jobless claims, pend ing home sales, and fourth-quarter GDP; and euro zone consumer prices
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