Our simulations also show that MATOPIBA is predicted to be
the most affected region, and may lose 40% (50%) of ESOY pro-
ductivity according to RCP8.5 (LUCID+PC13). MT and CB ESOY
productivity are also negatively affected by climate change until
2050,and RCP8.5 simulations show a more moderate decrease(11
and4%,respectively)than LUCID+PC13(30 and 11%,respectively)
(Table2).As LUCID+PC13 land-use scenarios are more severe than
those of RCP8.5 in central-northernBrazil(MT,CB and MATOPIBA),
the difference in productivity decrease between the two groups of
simulations is probably related to a stronger negative biogeophysi-
cal signal associated with tropical deforestation.In Southern Brazil
and Argentina,where the amount of deforested area issimilar in
RCP8.5 and LUCID+PC13,both groups of simulations indicate that
ESOY productivity may increase by ∼12–21% until the middle of
the century. In these cases, the change in precipitation after cli-
mate change is small (Fig. 4d–f), and this increase is most likely
due to higher levels of CO2