When it exists, backwardation in commodity markets tends to be evident
only in short-term futures and forward prices. Carrying costs increase with time
to delivery so that longer-term futures or forward contracts typically sell at
a premium even when prices for short-dated contracts exhibit backwardation.
Figure 2b shows that the pattern of backwardation extended out to at least 18 months as of August 21, 1992. At other times, however, futures prices begin
increasing at shorter horizons. Figure 2c shows the term structure of crude oil
futures prices as of April 20, 1994. On this latter date, futures prices exhibited
backwardation only for the first four delivery months and then began rising.