During follow-up, 1599 participants had a diagnosis of gastric cancer—1388 with non-cardia gastric cancer and 211 cardia gastric cancer. Table 2⇓ shows the distribution of gastric cancer cases across mucosal histology groups, along with crude incidence rates and standardised incidence ratios. The annual incidence of total gastric cancer in the normal group was 19.5×10−5 (95% confidence interval 16.2 to 23.3), which corresponds to the expected incidence in the Swedish population matched on age, sex, and calendar period (standardised incidence ratio 1.0). Among those with chronic non-atrophic gastritis, the annual incidence was 59.0×10−5 (55.2 to 63.1), corresponding to an 80% excess in relation to the matched Swedish population (standardised incidence ratio 1.8). The annual incidence increased monotonically with each step in Correa’s cascade, up to 262.8×10−5 (190.9 to 352.8) in the dysplasia group. With such an incidence, approximately 1 in 19 people will get gastric cancer within 20 years. Compared with the matched Swedish population, this is a 550% excess (standardised incidence ratio 6.5). As expected, the excess in relation to the matched Swedish population was greater for non-cardia gastric cancer (in the dysplasia group more than 610%), but more moderate for cardia gastric cancer (more than 280%). When we further stratified by sex, we observed a similar excess incidence of gastric cancer among both males and females (data not shown).