A reduction in water available for irrigation might be expected
to result in a reduction in irrigated output, but this is not
necessarily the case. One of the key determinants is the location of
the irrigated crop production. With current irrigated areas and
crop composition unchanged, less irrigation may lower yields and
output. However, if irrigated farming is allowed to migrate from
arid AEZs to less arid AEZs within the same river basin, it is not
impossible that at least the same crop production can be achieved
from less water. Furthermore, even though irrigated production is
negatively affected due to insufficient irrigation, total output may
not fall by much if irrigated farming accounts for only a small
portion of total crop production in that country, and if the supply of
rainfed land is relatively price responsive.