The Chinese economy is expected to grow only 7.3% lower than it should or not to worry?
China put its economic growth target this year stood at 7.5%, but the GDP figures for the third quarter came out not good. So many questions from the Chinese economy this year will be able to achieve the target. The trend in the future will come out?
The Chinese economy in the third quarter to grow soft in the 5-year period stood at 7.3% in the second quarter, matnueng and the economic growth rate stood at 7.4% and 7.5%, respectively. The minimum number of Chinese occurred last year 2009, which is the global financial crisis. The growth figures are only 6.6%.
But this time the slowdown might not be regarded as bad news, because the figures in the third quarter, coming out is still higher than the previous estimate. However, This was not treated as good news. Because the goal of the Chinese Government placed this year stood at 7.5%, which left one quarter of a year that will see the overview. Of course, this created pressure not least the Government of China.
The figure is a reflection of the economy overall, but did not indicate what portion of the economy, for better or worse. Therefore, prior to the economic numbers, with the concern that the decline should be viewed as a key industry group or a major factor in the changes that occur.
The number of those who have surpassed the target.
In the first nine months of the year China has more and more people are working up to ten million urban locations, which surpassed the target of the year. Mr. Dan Steinbock boss India China institute and Institute of America, said if the policy makers of the country. Define, for every increase of 1% of GDP with 1.5 million jobs created, a position equal to GDP at a rate of just 6.7-7% in the employment rate of ten million positions.
Section projects GDP down?
China's GDP in the first nine months came from domestic consumption 48.5%. Invest 41.3% and 10.2% exports, industrial output in September, an increase of 8% compared to one year ago. Have a bouncing back from a slump that made August 11 in six years at 6.9%, the proportion of the sectors in the GDP stood at 46.7% increase from last year's 1.2% and is higher than the industrial sector. 2.5% in September, increasing 1.8% compared with last year.
Mr. Chaichin Chairman of the China Federation of Logistics and Rong Purchasing which is an organization that helps in gathering information, purchasing managers index PMI, said the economic numbers, there is nothing worth worrying movement in the frame right still 7-7.5% From tracking data shows that many factors poses the positive and resulted in the fourth quarter of this year, especially the PMI and exports may rise in the next month.
But the greatest concern is that the investment in the sector a group of lands by investing in fixed assets (Fixed assets) in the first nine months increased by 16.1% compared to the same time last year, but down from 16.5% in the first eight months of the year, investment in the Group lands a 20% share in fixed assets has created a different effect on the industry, especially steel and cement with a slower growth rate, based on the reduced investment, however, the Government issued a policy to support people in homes, which is a loan to help to support carefully exposed throat, noticed the finding of indirect.
Soft policy of buying homes. Reduce the amount of down payment, and interest on the loan. See more great khaolang in October. The number of homes bought and sold in many cities, more noticeable. Second hand home price in Beijing has rebounded in the fourth quarter with a chance to see the exposed neck, back came bustling again, and noticed the.
The decline of heavy industry: changes to the environment.
During the past Air pollution problems created concern to the people of China, not less. The local governments in each area so that heavy industry approach to (Heavy Industry), which is the route that has a high social cost, or create a problem affecting many people. By the evident problem is pollution by big cities. During the past, industrial production was canceled in many cities, is a matter that puts city level GDP decreased.
The figures do not reflect the growth quality.
Although China is an economic slowdown but if slower growth but more quality. It's not supposed to be concerned with the swing this slight.
If you look at the number of people with jobs that are more than ten million digits. CPI index of 2.1% for the third quarter reflect the inflation level that is suitable. Export and service sectors and more, plus the policy supports investment in the lands of State and invest in infrastructure that is still rather strong, d. The Government also does not need to inject money into stimulus.
To reduce or expand the broad GDP target to move more and more to help China with the economic gap in quality control. The decline of heavy industry and manufacturing activity exceeds the quantity (Overcapacity) will affect the economic numbers in a short range, but if you look at the long term and the result is a structure of the economy and the environment. To expand, there are also good numbers of control of financial risks, especially the local government debt, and a great project management to stimulate the economy that rewards low.
Economic growth, China now may not be the same in the past, but this is beyond expectation to growth and quality. The GDP figures. Do not create a "New low" but a second new economic come and replace the old growth, known as "the New normal"
For investors and business people of Thailand to trade in China. The ledger to keep track of the industry will help the Chinese economy, trends and trade channels, more precisely. The goal of Chinese economic development geared to restructuring in order to develop and assure equal income distribution more. That this is the key to establish the quantity of domestic consumption, which means that China still has the potential to grow. Therefore, the Chinese market is still more appealing for investors both in and outside the country.