metals and minerals, will benefit significantly
from lower commodity prices.
Global crude prices are half what they
were a year ago, and slower demand in
China, tepid growth in Europe, resilient
supply from North America and increased
production in Iraq and Iran (as sanctions
are lifted) will likely keep oil cheap for
the next few years. Another parachute:
China holds about $4 trillion in foreign
currency reserves, more than twice as
much as the No. 2 holder, Japan. That’s a
sizable rainy-day fund to tap should the
economy need emergency stimulus. It’s
also a powerful fuel for massive investments
overseas that create opportunities
for Chinese companies, jobs for its workers
and influence for its policymakers
across the developing world.
But China’s real short-term advantage
lies in its increasingly potent political
leadership. Two years ago, President Xi
The Aug. 12 explosion at a chemical
warehouse in the eastern Chinese city
of Tianjin could have happened almost
anywhere, but it symbolized the way
many outsiders see China: as a country
where dark forces might one day ignite a
sudden conflagration inflicting massive
damage—for reasons that are murky.
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reform program has barely started, and
India’s economy is only about one-third
the size of China’s. Russian President
Vladimir Putin’s growing isolation means
he urgently needs to replace European energy
customers with Asian ones—which