Results.—After follow-up (median, 43.9 months), renal failure (50% reduction in glomerular filtration rate [GFR] or dialysis) had developed in 13 subjects. The expression levels of renal fibrogenic genes were increased as compared to controls without LN. COL1 correlated with
collagen I/III matrix index at baseline. Both high expression of TGFB1 or COL1 tended to predict renal failure by univariate analysis. By multivariate analysis, high ECMI and low GFR were predictive of renal failure. In patients with baseline GFR of 60 mL/min/1.73 m2
or greater, high renal COL1 expression was an independent (hazard ratio¼
4.4, P ¼ .04) predictor of renal failure.