The Impact of Climate Change
Despite Russia’s contribution to climate change, Russian policymakers feel little need to take steps domestically to mitigate it, and public pressure for tackling the issue is nearly absent. Skepticism persists about the anthropogenic causes of climate change. The potential benefits of climate change are also widely present in public discourse, which has further prevented Russia from taking a more proactive stance.
Climate change could in fact benefit the Russian Federation in various ways. Higher temperatures in the winter could reduce heating costs. Increased precipitation could potentially expand agricultural output in some parts of the country. The melting of sea ice in the Arctic could benefit oil and gas exploration and create new opportunities for navigation. Shipping activity has already increased in recent years in the Russian Arctic.
Climate change could have some dire consequences as well. The speed at which temperatures are changing matters a great deal. Russia’s average temperature is rising particularly fast—almost twice as fast as the global average and nearly three times as fast in parts of Siberia, according to the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring.15 This presents Russia with greater weather unpredictability and shorter time horizons in which to adapt.
While they may benefit some areas of the country, rising summer temperatures are also expected to increase droughts, particularly in the areas that currently constitute the core of Russia’s agriculture.16 Rising floods and increased river runoff could cause additional damage to agriculture. Forest fires, as witnessed near Moscow during the summer heat waves of 2010, could be a growing cause of deforestation and health hazards. Melting permafrost is weakening the bearing capacity of the ground. This has consequences for settlements and infrastructure in Russia’s north, and it could have a huge impact on the Russian economy, as it may complicate energy development projects in the region. There are already reports about an increase in accidents related to pipeline networks in permafrost regions.