In the insurance markets described above, financial stability of the primary insurer is strong because risk transfer is used
to guarantee their ability to meet claims. In this respect, three basic risk transfer mechanisms emerge: the state; the private
reinsurance market; and some form of catastrophe finance. The potential to transfer risk is linked to the insurability of the
risk, the size of the insured population, distribution patterns of risk and the tendency for adverse selection. Risk transfer
becomes problematic when the probable maximum loss is high relative to the potential for premium income, for example
in very high flood risk situations, low income economies or for those subject to low probability but high-consequence flood
events. Lack of predictability can also be problematic such as increases in storminess predicted as a result of climate change
generating wilder extremes in weather and claims in previously risk free areas. Diversification across hazards or geographies
leads to higher transferability of risk. Our analysis suggests that uncertainty and clustering due to climate change will therefore
markedly increase reliance on international reinsurance markets, catastrophe bonds and other financial instruments to
offset increased unpredictability, wider extremes and higher regional risks.
In the insurance markets described above, financial stability of the primary insurer is strong because risk transfer is used
to guarantee their ability to meet claims. In this respect, three basic risk transfer mechanisms emerge: the state; the private
reinsurance market; and some form of catastrophe finance. The potential to transfer risk is linked to the insurability of the
risk, the size of the insured population, distribution patterns of risk and the tendency for adverse selection. Risk transfer
becomes problematic when the probable maximum loss is high relative to the potential for premium income, for example
in very high flood risk situations, low income economies or for those subject to low probability but high-consequence flood
events. Lack of predictability can also be problematic such as increases in storminess predicted as a result of climate change
generating wilder extremes in weather and claims in previously risk free areas. Diversification across hazards or geographies
leads to higher transferability of risk. Our analysis suggests that uncertainty and clustering due to climate change will therefore
markedly increase reliance on international reinsurance markets, catastrophe bonds and other financial instruments to
offset increased unpredictability, wider extremes and higher regional risks.
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