the proposed canal. Shipping is a derived demand, and shipping
patterns are affected by many factors. The emergence of a new
canal will provide an alternative option for ship navigation
between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The potential roles of
the new canal will depend on various influences, including the
presence of competing waterways. Moreover, a new canal will
stimulate the development of shipping and trade. Therefore, our
study attempts to anticipate changes in shipping patterns by using
scenario planning under the uncertainties of the future, especially
with respect to countries in Far East Asia, such as China, Japan,
Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore. The regions connected
by the Nicaragua Canal, that are, the East Coast of America and
the Far East, are stakeholders in the construction of the Nicaragua
Canal. Both China and South America may undergo dynamic
changes as they are the most involved in the investment and will
be presented with huge trade and development opportunities.
Because a Chinese consortium is both the investor and constructor
of the proposed Nicaragua Canal, China is regarded as a key stakeholder
in the canal. Therefore, we focus on the possible impacts on
China due to the canal and on the possible reactions of China.
This study develops possible dominant scenarios driven by
identified drivers, demonstrates possible interactions between