2.2. Implications for the exchange rate
Our model so far has dealt exclusively with the effect of a loss of confidence on the value of a single firm. Aggregating similar firms to create an economy-wide collapse of firms’ values is straightforward. We can also reasonably assume that foreign investors and many domestic investors care about returns in dollars. We then have the result that a fall in R, which is now a loss of confidence about returns in dollars, can trigger a fall in firms’ values in dollars (i.e., the value of the stock market in dollar terms). Note that firms’ values could fall sharply, even if there is not much actual stealing, because the value of firms’ to outsiders is determined by expected expropriation.