Previous work on effective marginal tax rates finds consistently high rates facing
low- and middle-income families. The Congressional Budget Office (2005) finds that
within the formal tax system (federal income tax, payroll tax, and an “average” state
tax), marginal tax rates are negative at very low incomes but accelerate quickly above
that level. More precisely, for a head of household with one child, CBO finds that the
marginal tax rate climbs to 40 percent when a worker earns slightly more than about
$12,000, and then to nearly 50 percent in the mid-$20,000 range. To observe effective
marginal tax rates faced in actual populations, Dickert, Houser, and Scholz (1994) and
Giannarelli and Steuerle (1995) both used the Urban Institute’s Transfer Income Model
(TRIM2) based on Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) and Current
Population Survey (CPS) data, respectively. Dickert, Houser, and Scholz found marginal
tax rates around 60 percent facing low income families, but they expressed optimism
that the EITC, which had not been fully phased in, would lower these burdens.
Previous work on effective marginal tax rates finds consistently high rates facinglow- and middle-income families. The Congressional Budget Office (2005) finds thatwithin the formal tax system (federal income tax, payroll tax, and an “average” statetax), marginal tax rates are negative at very low incomes but accelerate quickly abovethat level. More precisely, for a head of household with one child, CBO finds that themarginal tax rate climbs to 40 percent when a worker earns slightly more than about$12,000, and then to nearly 50 percent in the mid-$20,000 range. To observe effectivemarginal tax rates faced in actual populations, Dickert, Houser, and Scholz (1994) andGiannarelli and Steuerle (1995) both used the Urban Institute’s Transfer Income Model(TRIM2) based on Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) and CurrentPopulation Survey (CPS) data, respectively. Dickert, Houser, and Scholz found marginaltax rates around 60 percent facing low income families, but they expressed optimismthat the EITC, which had not been fully phased in, would lower these burdens.
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