I agree. We launch a new project because of its potential to increase our sales and earning power for many years into the future. We must be mindful of short-term consequences, as indicated by an incremental analysis, but we must also have a long-range frame of reference if we are to really understand what we are committing ourselves to. This long-range frame of reference is best approximated by looking at fully allocated investment and “accounted” profits, which recognize fully allocated costs, because in fact, over the long run all costs are variable unless some major change occurs in the structure of the business.
Our current GF preoccupation with only the incremental costs and investment causes some real anomalies that confuse our decision making. Super is a good example, on an incremental basis the project looks particularly attractive because, by using a share of the excess capacity built on the coattails of the lucrative Jell-o project, the incremental investment in Super is low. If the excess Jell-o capacity did not exist, would the project be any less attractive? In the short term, perhaps yes because it would entail higher initial risk; but in the long term, it is not a better project just because it fits a facility that is temporarily unused.
Looking at this point from a different angle, if the project exceeded our investment hurdle rate on a short-term basis but fell below it on a long-term basis (and super comes close to doing this), should we reject the project? I say yes, because over the long run, as “fixed” costs become variable and as we have to commit new capital to support the business, the continuing ROFE will go under water.
In sum, we have to look at new project proposals from both the long-range and the short-term point of view. We plan to refine our techniques of using a fully allocated basis as a long-term point of reference and will hammer out a policy recommendation for your consideration. We would appreciate any comments you may have.
I agree. We launch a new project because of its potential to increase our sales and earning power for many years into the future. We must be mindful of short-term consequences, as indicated by an incremental analysis, but we must also have a long-range frame of reference if we are to really understand what we are committing ourselves to. This long-range frame of reference is best approximated by looking at fully allocated investment and “accounted” profits, which recognize fully allocated costs, because in fact, over the long run all costs are variable unless some major change occurs in the structure of the business.
Our current GF preoccupation with only the incremental costs and investment causes some real anomalies that confuse our decision making. Super is a good example, on an incremental basis the project looks particularly attractive because, by using a share of the excess capacity built on the coattails of the lucrative Jell-o project, the incremental investment in Super is low. If the excess Jell-o capacity did not exist, would the project be any less attractive? In the short term, perhaps yes because it would entail higher initial risk; but in the long term, it is not a better project just because it fits a facility that is temporarily unused.
Looking at this point from a different angle, if the project exceeded our investment hurdle rate on a short-term basis but fell below it on a long-term basis (and super comes close to doing this), should we reject the project? I say yes, because over the long run, as “fixed” costs become variable and as we have to commit new capital to support the business, the continuing ROFE will go under water.
In sum, we have to look at new project proposals from both the long-range and the short-term point of view. We plan to refine our techniques of using a fully allocated basis as a long-term point of reference and will hammer out a policy recommendation for your consideration. We would appreciate any comments you may have.
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