Capital inflows to emerging economies peaked in January 2013, slowed in the first half of 2013, and sharply reversed in the months immediately following Chairman Bernanke’s May comments. Figure 1 shows capital flows to emerging Asia and Latin America (from Powell 2013a). Foreign investments started to decline before May, perhaps in response to the improvements in U.S. economic fundamentals that motivated consideration of asset purchase tapering in the first place. Nonetheless, large capital outflows from emerging Asia and Latin America appear to have coincided with the May testimony.
These large capital outflows indicate that investors interpreted Chairman Bernanke’s statements as implying an impending reduction in monetary accommodation. A number of Fed policymakers subsequently tried to reassure investors that actual removal of monetary policy accommodation was still far off (for example, Dudley 2013, Williams 2013, and Powell 2013b). In addition, they stressed that the liftoff date for moving the federal funds rate above its lower bound near zero was not linked to the pace of tapering of asset purchases. Tapering would merely slow the rate at which the Fed would be adding assets to its portfolio. Despite these qualifications, the taper scare apparently prompted an overall reduction in investment in riskier assets, including assets from emerging economies.