Using data from three countries that differ economically, culturally, and geographically, this
study examines the role of Prospect Theory’s reflection effect, a psychological factor, in
combination with Uncertainty Avoidance (UA), a cultural factor, on the choice of mortgage
products. Experiments were conducted using business professionals in the United States,
Germany, and Japan. The results suggest that risk-averse people tend to become more risk
seeking, leaning more toward adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) when choosing a mortgage
type, and that this psychological effect may underlie the mortgage choices of people who tend
to choose ARMs, even across countries with different cultures.
Keywords: Adjustable-rate mortgage, Fixed-rate mortgage, Prospect theory, Uncertainty