Global Growth
• The IMF predicts global GDP at 3.3% in 2015, marginally lower than in 2014
• Americas and Europe - America is recovering, China is slowing and emerging markets are caught in the middle
• Middle East - shift away from Egypt, Syria and Lebanon towards the Gulf markets
• Africa - business tourism plus decreasing incomes
• Asia - remains the leading global region for economic growth
• A slowdown in emerging market and developing economies
•The distribution of risks to global economic activity is still tilted to the downside. Lower commodity prices also pose risks to the outlook in low-income developing economies after many years of strong growth.
Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets Key findings • By 2015, China and India will each have absolute year-on-year tourism growth equal to or greater than the UK, France or Japan. • Penetration of the domestic travel markets in China and India will yield the greatest long-term returns for international brands. • Local brands still dominate emerging market mid-market and budget sectors. • Across India the government has identified a shortage of around 150,000 rooms, with most of the under-supply occurring in the budget sector • Both China and India are at risk of an over-supply of luxury hotels in key tourism cities, at least in the short term.