Exchange rate risk has increased
The exchange rate of the Russian RUB has shown considerable vulnerability to external shocks in recent years. In 2013 the RUB fell by 10% against a USD+EUR basket, as a result of weakening Russian growth prospects and the worsened global market sentiment towards emerging markets in the wake of the US Fed's taper talk. In the first two and a half months of 2014, the RUB depreciated by another 12% against the USD+EUR basket, on account of a continued weak growth outlook and deteriorating investor sentiment over the potential economic costs for Russia of the intensifying conflict with Ukraine. Heavy foreign exchange (FX) intervention and a total 200 bps hike of the key monetary policy interest rate to 7.5% prevented an even sharper RUB decline and helped the RUB to regain two thirds of the Q1 losses by end-June. However, as the West has stepped up sanctions against Russia in Q3, the RUB has fallen again by 11% against the USD+EUR basket (14% against the USD) in Q3 to date. Euler Hermes does not expect a serious currency crisis in the foreseeable future thanks to the ample official FX reserves of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), but ongoing currency volatility and further depreciation are highly likely as long as the conflict lasts, posing considerable difficulties for companies that have to serve large amounts of short-term debt denominated in FX.authorities greater freedom to adjust the policy stance for domestic requirements. The fiscal rule does not provide much room for stimulus. This difficult combination of weak growth and higher inflation highlights the need for structural reforms.