Granger causality test indicates that T bill rates, exchange rates, inflation
and money growth rate granger causes returns. This relationship has economic
rational as increase interest rates , inflation leads to increase in discount rates and it
ultimately results in reduction of prices. Impulse response analysis exhibits that one
standard deviation change in money supply leads to increase in equity prices due to
increase in liquidity and this result is consistent with results of Maysami and
Koh(2000). No statistically significant impact has been observed among equity
market and industrial production, oil prices and portfolio investment. Results can be
summarized as that unidirectional causality flowing from monetary variables to
equity market and this lead- lag relationship makes it imperative for financial and
economic mangers of country to be more careful and vigilant in decision making as
these decisions are priced in equity market and sets the trends in capital market
which is considered as barometer of economy. However insignificant relationship
with industrial production, oil indicates that market movement is not based on
fundamentals and real economic activity.