Four Conclusions
1)Any attribution of causation may be partly subjective;
2)Though partly subjective, the attribution of cause in
historiography is not arbitrary. It rests on counter-factual
judgements;
3)The counter-factual judgements of a historian are not wild
guesses. They rest on her estimates of probability;
4)Estimates of historical probability are far from
mathematical probability. They rest on an understanding of
human affairs. (IPH, 92)