This paper describes the effects of the nascent regulation of the Italian Insolvency Law in regard to
Troubled Debt Restructuring (TDR), which has not yet been studied in Italy. We have developed a
model to assess the probability for a firm to file for the TDR, describing the TDR’s effects on the
financial distress. To this end, we collected a panel dataset of 49 Italian listed companies from the
period 2003 to 2011. Firstly, according to previous literature, we apply the multivariate
discriminant analysis (MDA) through accounting ratios in order to distinguish the groups of
“distressed” and “non‐distressed” firms. Subsequently, we introduce a novel technique to forecast
the probability of filing for the TDR. The results confirm our hypotheses: the probability of the
“distressed” group increases until the year of TDR application and then decreases; on the contrary,
it follows a constant trend for the “non‐distressed” firms. Supplementary results reveal that the
financial condition of the distressed group post‐filing TDR is frozen. These findings prove that the
TDR seems to support the distressed firms in regard to the maintenance of their financial stability