I. INTRODUCTION A. Public Finances Prior to 2011
Prior to 2011, spending priorities were heavily distorted, which had a large influence on Myanmar’s low level of economic and human development. For the period 2004–2009 government spending on the military was consistently higher than spending on health and education combined, with Myanmar being the only country in Southeast Asia where this was the case (Turnell 2011). The Government of Myanmar consistently ran budget deficits, with the vast majority of these deficits financed by the government-controlled central bank printing money, with the inevitable result of high inflation. The highly overvalued official exchange rate negatively impacted the economy in a variety of ways, and from a fiscal perspective meant that the true value of the income of state economic enterprises (SEEs) did not appear in government accounts, with this problem being particularly acute for SEEs operating in the gas and oil industries.
The legally defined tax regime was extremely complicated and this, together with the low capacity of tax administration, resulted in a system where the tax that individuals and businesses actually paid was highly arbitrary, albeit often following certain norms within a given geographical area or sector. The complicated nature of tax regulations and low capacity for enforcement created many perverse incentives and encouraged rent-seeking. Although the fiscal system was highly centralized in theory, and in many aspects continued to be in practice, the central government was not the only actor that could levy taxes or “charges” from citizens and businesses. These taxes or charges could also be levied by: (i) Township Peace and Development Councils, (ii) Village Peace and Development Councils, (iii) state and nonstate military organizations, and (iv) government organized “non- governmental organizations” (GONGOs) (Turnell 2011). A low level of transparency and rules-based procedures was a feature of how revenue was collected and how it was allocated for spending at all levels of the fiscal system.
B. Recent Developments
In April 2012, the government replaced the overvalued fixed exchange rate with a managed float at a realistic rate. This has resulted in higher revenues from SEEs appearing in government accounts. Since
2011 many loss-making SEEs have been privatized, with further privatizations, corporatizations and public–private partnerships planned. These privatizations have been focused on loss-making entities and so can be expected to have a positive impact on the government's balance sheet. The government has been working to reform tax policy, which will involve reforming the tax on special consumption goods and expanding taxation of services. In the long run, the government intends to introduce a full value-added tax (VAT) system. All of these changes should increase government revenues. However, several recent pieces of legislation threaten to have the opposite effect, notably the Special Economic Zone Law (January 2011), Foreign Investment Law (November 2012), and Citizens Investment Law (July 2013). These pieces of legislation provide a range of tax breaks and holidays for businesses, thereby reducing the amount of revenue the government will be able to collect.
Moves have been made to create an independent central bank and a new Central Bank Law was introduced in July 2013, granting far greater autonomy to this institution than was previously the case. The Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM) and the government have committed to gradually phase out the monetization of budget deficits. If this is achieved, it can be expected to deliver significant macroeconomic benefits.
With so many changes occurring in both the political and economic spheres, financial risk is high; and the World Bank has identified weak internal control and central oversight of spending and revenue collection as potential barriers to effectively dealing with this risk (World Bank 2013). And while the increased revenues that will arise from the move to a realistic exchange rate are certainly welcome, the increased contribution of natural resource revenues to overall revenues will inevitably increase the volatility of overall revenues.
The last couple of years have seen big increases in spending on health and education, and large rises in civil service pay and pensions. However, military spending has also continued to increase over this period and accounted for 27% of government spending for FY2013, i.e., still higher than spending on health and education combined (Section II.A). Current expenditure has increased relative to capital expenditure, but Myanmar's spending is still more tilted toward capital expenditure than that of other countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
The 2008 Constitution stipulated that certain fiscal responsibilities should be decentralized to the governments of states and regions. In a speech made in August 2013, President Thein Sein outlined additional decentralization of certain fiscal operation (The New Light of Myanmar 2013); and further fiscal decentralization is possible within the next few years. In the long run, these changes should make spending more efficient and responsive to public needs and desires, but the low capacity that subnational governments currently have for carrying out fiscal responsibilities mean that considerable efficiency gains are unlikely to arise from this change in the short run.
The government has committed to implementing the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), which will help boost fiscal transparency. The Budget Law was made public for the first time in FY2012, also representing a significant step toward greater transparency of fiscal matters. However, although important steps have been made to increase transparency, much remains to be done. Many government and other public sector entities do not fully report their financial operations, and “Other Accounts” are widely used (there are over 13,400 in total).1 The amount of key fiscal information made available to the public also remains lower than in most other countries, limiting the input citizens and other nongovernmental actors can have on fiscal management issues.
The Internal Revenue Department has adopted a strategic reform plan that includes the establishment of a Large Taxpayer Office (LTO), which became operational in April 2014. The LTO has introduced taxpayer self-assessment and issued unique taxpayer identification numbers, and will be used as a model for establishing Medium Taxpayer Offices, and the reform of small taxpayer compliance methods. These changes should help the government to improve its revenue collection. Technical assistance for these changes is being sought from international organizations, as is the case with a variety of other changes the government seeks to make to its fiscal administration (IMF 2013). Following the political liberalization of the last few years, the international community has abolished or suspended most sanctions, relations with major international financial institutions (IFIs) have been normalized, and more than half of Myanmar's external debt has been written off. These changes can be expected to improve Myanmar's future fiscal performance.
1 See Section VI.C for a detailed discussion of this issue. Most of the accounts belong to state-owned enterprises, but some belong to government ministries.
C. The Government of Myanmar’s Fiscal Management Objectives
In the Framework for Economic and Social Reforms (FESR), the government outlines its plans for health and education to account for an increasing proportion of government spending, while the share spent on the military will decline. The government also recognizes the need to reduce reliance on resource revenues and is therefore prioritizing the reform of tax policy and tax administration as well as a gradual shift away from direct to indirect taxation. The Ministry of Finance and Revenue (MoFR) has set a target of achieving a 10% tax-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio (i.e., more than double the current ratio) by 2018. The MoFR also recognizes the need to broaden what is currently a very narrow tax base (IMF 2013).
Monetary policy still has a limited role in Myanmar, so in the short- to medium-term, fiscal policy will remain the main instrument for managing macroeconomic stability and growth. However, fiscal policy also needs to be used to address the country’s large and pressing human development needs. In order to deliver optimal fiscal reform, the MoFR has established a working group to develop public financial management (PFM) reform strategies and help to coordinate international donors— both financial and technical cooperation is being sought from the international community.
D. Outline
Section II examines the strategic resource allocation, covering: the level and sectoral allocation of public expenditures, balancing capital and recurrent expenditures, balancing public and private expenditures, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of public expenditures, and improving the planning and budgeting system. Section III covers various aspects related to resource mobilization, namely: revenues from natural resources, SEE resources, taxes, and foreign aid and borrowing. Section IV discusses the recent move to fiscal decentralization, paying particular attention to: the links between political, administrative and fiscal decentralization; progress on the four pillars of fiscal decentralization; and the links between fiscal decentralization and sharing natural resource wealth. Section V considers the importance of macro fis