USDA estimated that soybean growers will harvest 3.85 bil bu this fall, higher than average analyst forecasts of 3.826 bil but smaller than last year's record crop. The USDA's estimate the second-largest U.S. soybean crop in history, assumes average weather over the growing season. The report also expected bumper crop this year would increase U.S. soybean stockpiles at the end of the 2015-16 season next summer to 500 mil bu, well above analysts' forecast of 438 mil. Vs 2014-15 estimate of 350 mil as ending stock from the current season this August. "The surprise in this report was the soybean estimates," The projected 500 mil bu "is a very hard number to swallow" and will pressure prices.
U.S. soybean reserves are expected to increase by a steep drop in corn prices has driven U.S. growers to switch to more soybean. USDA in March projected record U.S. soybean acreage for the 2nd year in a row. Farmers have turned to soybeans because prices for the oilseed have fallen less, comparing to corn from the two crops' record 2012 prices . Soybeans production costs less due to lower seed prices and less use of fertilizer. July bean, the most actively traded contract, dropped 18 1/2 cents, or 1.9%, to $9.55 1/2 a bushel.