How does the actual evolution of the economy compare with that of
the sort of view that I believe we should develop? First, the economy and
the financial sector had organized itself into a highly interdependent
system. This is not, however, reflected in the structure of modern macroeconomic
models. Second and paradoxically, the financial sector ceased
to play its essential role of matching the providers of capital with those
who demand it, in an informationally efficient and transparent way.
Indeed, the extensive interlocking of the components of the financial
and housing markets and the heavy trading of derivatives actually concealed
information rather than revealing it. The diversification and
repackaging of the assets in question made it more and more difficult
to estimate the true risk involved, and the dependence on the evolution
of the prices in the housing market meant that there was an important
correlation between the risks of the individual assets. Worse, when the
housing market went into decline, the way in which derivatives had been
constructed made it very difficult for the lenders to restructure their
loans in a way which would have been advantageous for both banks
and borrowers (see Geanakoplos 2010). Thus, the system self-organized
its own destruction and led to a radical change in the aggregate economic
situation. But once again, this is a story of interaction and interdependence
and the breakdown of the relations of trust and confidence which had
developed over time and not one of an external shock to a stable market.