the people's Bank of china (PBOC) is turning to a hidden hand as it seeks to turning to a hidden hand as it seeks to stimulate the world's second - largest economy without worsening debt risks.
contrary to the federal Reserve's forward guidance, the bank of England's increased transparency and a Group of 20 Nations vow to clearly communicate policies, china has added liquidity by stealth at least four times in the past four months.
one proxy it has been using is china Development bank (CDB), the nation's biggest policy lender.
Balancing the need to buoy an economy set for its slowest full - year expansion since 1990 and eff to contain a debt pile that's almost doubled in six years, china's lenders have sought a targeted monetary path that is deviating from advanced economy peers.
the problem is, by keeping in the shadows, speculators have jumped in, pushing the stock market up by more than 20 % since the PBOC's benchmark interest rate cut on Nov 21 in anticipation of more monetary easing.
It lacks both transparency and effectiveness, said Ding shuang, senior china economist at citigroup in hong kong. On this year's policies, i can say i have no clue of their reasoning.
On rransparency, governor Zhou Xiaochuan's past comments suggest he is less wedded to the global push for clearer policy signalling and prefers to let actions speak for themseleves. in May, he said forward guidance adopted by the fed when it was running out of policy options may not serve china, which still has room to send clear messages via policy moves.
As for effectiveness, one criticism of unannounced liquidity injections is that they lack signalling impact compared with benchmark rate cuts or lowering bank's reserve requirement ratios, analysts at morgan stanley wrote in a research note this month.
the PBOC rolled over at least part of a 500-billion-yuan(us) threemonth lending facility to the largest chinese lenders last week, days after it injected 400 billion yuan via the CDB.
these steps followed a i-trillion-yuan loan to the CDB to bolster social housing.
Injections of 769.5 billion yuan in september and October wera also announced.
the financial system in china does not do a good job of transmitting policy signals through the rest of the economy, said Mark Williams, chief Asia Economist at capital Economics. the PBOC is leaning on the CDB to"introduce the kind of monetary easing that thay are looking for: he said.
the PBOC has become busier as the year progressed. On top of the liquidity injections, it lowered deposit ratios and cut reloan rates for some designated banks.
As the economy continued to lose momentum,it reduced benchmark lending and deposit rates last month, taking economists by surprise.
It's obvious that the central bank didn't want to cut the interest rate - other ministries were calling for a cut:said dong Tao,chief regional economist for Asia excluding Japan at credit suisse group in hong kong. the central bank cannot solely decide china's interest rate moves,and the real decision making power lies at the state councill.
the PBOC follows orders from the cabinet and shoulders responsibility for sustaining the economy.
the people's Bank of china (PBOC) is turning to a hidden hand as it seeks to turning to a hidden hand as it seeks to stimulate the world's second - largest economy without worsening debt risks.contrary to the federal Reserve's forward guidance, the bank of England's increased transparency and a Group of 20 Nations vow to clearly communicate policies, china has added liquidity by stealth at least four times in the past four months.one proxy it has been using is china Development bank (CDB), the nation's biggest policy lender.Balancing the need to buoy an economy set for its slowest full - year expansion since 1990 and eff to contain a debt pile that's almost doubled in six years, china's lenders have sought a targeted monetary path that is deviating from advanced economy peers.the problem is, by keeping in the shadows, speculators have jumped in, pushing the stock market up by more than 20 % since the PBOC's benchmark interest rate cut on Nov 21 in anticipation of more monetary easing.It lacks both transparency and effectiveness, said Ding shuang, senior china economist at citigroup in hong kong. On this year's policies, i can say i have no clue of their reasoning.On rransparency, governor Zhou Xiaochuan's past comments suggest he is less wedded to the global push for clearer policy signalling and prefers to let actions speak for themseleves. in May, he said forward guidance adopted by the fed when it was running out of policy options may not serve china, which still has room to send clear messages via policy moves.As for effectiveness, one criticism of unannounced liquidity injections is that they lack signalling impact compared with benchmark rate cuts or lowering bank's reserve requirement ratios, analysts at morgan stanley wrote in a research note this month.the PBOC rolled over at least part of a 500-billion-yuan(us) threemonth lending facility to the largest chinese lenders last week, days after it injected 400 billion yuan via the CDB.these steps followed a i-trillion-yuan loan to the CDB to bolster social housing.Injections of 769.5 billion yuan in september and October wera also announced.the financial system in china does not do a good job of transmitting policy signals through the rest of the economy, said Mark Williams, chief Asia Economist at capital Economics. the PBOC is leaning on the CDB to"introduce the kind of monetary easing that thay are looking for: he said.the PBOC has become busier as the year progressed. On top of the liquidity injections, it lowered deposit ratios and cut reloan rates for some designated banks.As the economy continued to lose momentum,it reduced benchmark lending and deposit rates last month, taking economists by surprise.It's obvious that the central bank didn't want to cut the interest rate - other ministries were calling for a cut:said dong Tao,chief regional economist for Asia excluding Japan at credit suisse group in hong kong. the central bank cannot solely decide china's interest rate moves,and the real decision making power lies at the state councill.the PBOC follows orders from the cabinet and shoulders responsibility for sustaining the economy.
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the people's Bank of china (PBOC) is turning to a hidden hand as it seeks to turning to a hidden hand as it seeks to stimulate the world's second - largest economy without worsening debt risks.
contrary to the federal Reserve's forward guidance, the bank of England's increased transparency and a Group of 20 Nations vow to clearly communicate policies, china has added liquidity by stealth at least four times in the past four months.
one proxy it has been using is china Development bank (CDB), the nation's biggest policy lender.
Balancing the need to buoy an economy set for its slowest full - year expansion since 1990 and eff to contain a debt pile that's almost doubled in six years, china's lenders have sought a targeted monetary path that is deviating from advanced economy peers.
the problem is, by keeping in the shadows, speculators have jumped in, pushing the stock market up by more than 20 % since the PBOC's benchmark interest rate cut on Nov 21 in anticipation of more monetary easing.
It lacks both transparency and effectiveness, said Ding shuang, senior china economist at citigroup in hong kong. On this year's policies, i can say i have no clue of their reasoning.
On rransparency, governor Zhou Xiaochuan's past comments suggest he is less wedded to the global push for clearer policy signalling and prefers to let actions speak for themseleves. in May, he said forward guidance adopted by the fed when it was running out of policy options may not serve china, which still has room to send clear messages via policy moves.
As for effectiveness, one criticism of unannounced liquidity injections is that they lack signalling impact compared with benchmark rate cuts or lowering bank's reserve requirement ratios, analysts at morgan stanley wrote in a research note this month.
the PBOC rolled over at least part of a 500-billion-yuan(us) threemonth lending facility to the largest chinese lenders last week, days after it injected 400 billion yuan via the CDB.
these steps followed a i-trillion-yuan loan to the CDB to bolster social housing.
Injections of 769.5 billion yuan in september and October wera also announced.
the financial system in china does not do a good job of transmitting policy signals through the rest of the economy, said Mark Williams, chief Asia Economist at capital Economics. the PBOC is leaning on the CDB to"introduce the kind of monetary easing that thay are looking for: he said.
the PBOC has become busier as the year progressed. On top of the liquidity injections, it lowered deposit ratios and cut reloan rates for some designated banks.
As the economy continued to lose momentum,it reduced benchmark lending and deposit rates last month, taking economists by surprise.
It's obvious that the central bank didn't want to cut the interest rate - other ministries were calling for a cut:said dong Tao,chief regional economist for Asia excluding Japan at credit suisse group in hong kong. the central bank cannot solely decide china's interest rate moves,and the real decision making power lies at the state councill.
the PBOC follows orders from the cabinet and shoulders responsibility for sustaining the economy.
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