2. Electoral rules and corruption: literature and hypothesis
This section starts with the analysis of the theoretical and empirical literature linking electoral systems, political competition and corruption; this helps to explain why they are said to be wrapped in a complex web. Moreover, studying this web will allow us to justify the testing hypothesis of the role played by political competition within the relationship between the electoral system and corruption.
The impact of electoral rules on corruption has so far been explored within two categories: the district size (i.e. the number of seats in a district) and the electoral formula (i.e. how votes are translated into seats). Regarding the district size, majoritarian systems tend to have small districts (small district size) where only one candidate is elected in each district; the incumbent is more likely to reach a relative majority because he/she is already well known in the constituency. In this context, corruption will tend to be high since it will be hard (and will have a higher ideological cost) to remove the well established party from office. Therefore, small districts contribute to increase barriers to entry for competing politicians (possibly the most honest ones). Indeed, in proportional systems with large districts, several candidates who get a minority of votes can be appointed. This means stiffer competition and smaller incumbent rents due to the decreased entry barriers ( Myerson, 1993 and Ferejohn, 1986). Hereafter we will refer to this situation as the “barrier to entry” effect.
Referring to the electoral formula, in majoritarian representations, when individual candidates are voted for, there is a direct link between individual performance and reappointment (accountability): the valuation of representatives is based on their ability to represent the interests of the community. Thus, the incumbent faces strong incentives not to act in a corrupt manner in order to maximize the probability of re-election. On the contrary, in proportional systems voters vote for a list of candidates drawn up by political parties, without expressing a preference for any particular candidate: the incentive for corruption is higher than in a majoritarian system ( Persson and Tabellini, 1999a, Persson and Tabellini, 1999b and Persson and Tabellini, 2000). Hereafter we will refer to this situation as the “accountability” effect.
Hence, the impact of electoral systems on corruption is complex: if the barriers to entry effect dominate the accountability effect, majoritarian systems will be more corrupt than proportional ones; otherwise, the reverse happens. The empirical works of Persson et al. (2003), Gagliarducci et al. (2011) and Kunicova and Rose-Ackerman (2005) suggest that countries with proportional systems have much more widespread corruption than countries with majoritarian systems. Chang and Golden (2007) have found that, both at cross-national and at national (Italian) level, open-list PR systems (which allows voters to select individual candidates from party lists) is associated with greater corruption than closed-list systems (where candidate selection is controlled by the national party leadership) once the district sizes exceed a certain threshold.
The theoretical literature seems to confirm that the direct effect of electoral systems on corruption depends on contrasting forces; thus, empirical analysis has the task of specifying the impact of these forces.
So far, the literature has assigned only a marginal weight to the role of political competition in the relationship between electoral system and corruption; the mentioned role of political competition represents the value added of our paper. In this regards two aspects have to be underlined. The first aspect is the link between party competition and corruption and we hypothesize that it may influence the effect of the electoral system on corruption: this is what we call the indirect effect of electoral rule on corruption. Political competition is defined as the competition among political parties to collect votes at elections; it is, therefore, the competition for political power ( Bardhan and Yang, 2004). 4 As a determinant of corruption, political competition is viewed as the accountability for incumbents ( Persson et al., 1997): an intense political competition implies that the incumbent politician is more accountable for his actions in office: the incumbent has an incentive for good performance, or he can be easily removed and replaced ( Mulligan and Tsui, 2006). 5 Otherwise, if competition in the votes market is viewed as competition in the goods market ( Stigler, 1972), an intense political competition may also lead to a low probability of re-election for the incumbent, as for a firm that may lose a share of the market if the latter becomes more competitive; in this case, an incumbent can act in a myopic manner, maximizing rents during his remaining time in office. To sum up, also the overall effect of political competition on corruption is complex and difficult to define.
The other fundamental aspect is the relationship between electoral systems and political competition. To the best of our knowledge, there are no theoretical or empirical analysis that shed light on how the degree of proportionality of the electoral system determines the degree of competition among political parties. By affecting the party's formation, different electoral rules produce different levels of competition among parties. According to Duverger's (1972) Law, majority rules lead to a two-party system, while proportional systems favour multi-party systems and thus competition among many political bodies. However, Duverger's Law links the electoral system to the number of political parties competing at elections, not to their relative size. Based on the definition given above, political competition may be interpreted as the competition among firms in the goods market: the more competitive the parties, the more responsive the political system will be to the desires of the majority. In this case, political competition is similar to economic competition: political effectiveness is an increasing function of the size of a political party. Therefore, a larger number of competing political parties is certainly a necessary condition for high political competition, but the relative size of the political party is the key to define the degree of political competition in the votes market.
The joint analysis of these relationships allows us to formulate the hypothesis that, in studying the effect of electoral systems on corruption, the role of political competition must be considered. More precisely, the hypothesis being tested is that the electoral system degree of proportionality6 affects corruption even through the degree of political competition among political parties. Direct and indirect effects may affect corruption in the same direction or in the opposite direction according to how political competition reacts to variations in the degree of proportionality of the electoral rule. In this regard, various matching possibilities can be identified that drive the total effect of the degree of proportionality of the electoral system on corruption: the indirect effect of political competition may reinforce or depress the direct effect.
2. วรรณกรรมและสมมติฐานในส่วนนี้จะเริ่มต้นด้วยการวิเคราะห์วรรณกรรมเชิงทฤษฎีและเชิงประจักษ์ในการเชื่อมโยงระบบการเลือกตั้งการแข่งขันทางการเมืองและการทุจริต นี้จะช่วยในการอธิบายว่าทำไมพวกเขาจะกล่าวว่าเป็นห่อในเว็บที่ซับซ้อน . นอกจากนี้ยังมีการศึกษาเว็บนี้จะช่วยให้เราสามารถแสดงให้เห็นถึงการทดสอบสมมติฐานของบทบาทที่เล่นโดยการแข่งขันทางการเมืองที่อยู่ในความสัมพันธ์ระหว่างระบบการเลือกตั้งและการทุจริตผลกระทบของกฎการเลือกตั้งเกี่ยวกับการทุจริตได้เพื่อให้ห่างไกลได้รับการสำรวจภายในสองประเภทขนาดเมือง เกี่ยวกับขนาดอำเภอระบบ หน้าที่มีแนวโน้มที่จะไปถึงญาติพี่น้องส่วนใหญ่เพราะเขา ในบริบทนี้ความเสียหายจะมีแนวโน้มที่จะสูงเพราะมันจะยาก ดังนั้นอำเภอเล็ก ๆ นำไปสู่การเพิ่มอุปสรรคในการเข้าแข่งขันนักการเมือง แท้จริงในระบบสัดส่วนกับหัวเมืองขนาดใหญ่ผู้สมัครหลายคนที่ได้รับการลงมติของผู้ถือหุ้นส่วนน้อยสามารถได้รับการแต่งตั้ง ซึ่งหมายความว่าการแข่งขันแข็งและค่าเช่าดำรงตำแหน่งที่มีขนาดเล็กเนื่องจากการอุปสรรคในการเข้าลดลง ปรโลกเราจะอ้างถึงสถานการณ์นี้เป็น" ผลหมายถึงสูตรการเลือกตั้งในการแสดง ดังนั้นหน้าที่ใบหน้าแรงจูงใจไม่ได้ที่จะทำหน้าที่ในลักษณะที่เสียหายเพื่อเพิ่มโอกาสในการเลือกตั้ง ในทางตรงกันข้ามในผู้มีสิทธิเลือกตั้งระบบสัดส่วนออกเสียงลงคะแนนสำหรับรายชื่อของผู้สมัครที่วาดขึ้นโดยพรรคการเมืองโดยไม่ต้องแสดงการตั้งค่าสำหรับผู้สมัครใด ๆ 2. Electoral rules and corruption: literature and hypothesis
This section starts with the analysis of the theoretical and empirical literature linking electoral systems, political competition and corruption; this helps to explain why they are said to be wrapped in a complex web. Moreover, studying this web will allow us to justify the testing hypothesis of the role played by political competition within the relationship between the electoral system and corruption.
The impact of electoral rules on corruption has so far been explored within two categories: the district size (i.e. the number of seats in a district) and the electoral formula (i.e. how votes are translated into seats). Regarding the district size, majoritarian systems tend to have small districts (small district size) where only one candidate is elected in each district; the incumbent is more likely to reach a relative majority because he/she is already well known in the constituency. In this context, corruption will tend to be high since it will be hard (and will have a higher ideological cost) to remove the well established party from office. Therefore, small districts contribute to increase barriers to entry for competing politicians (possibly the most honest ones). Indeed, in proportional systems with large districts, several candidates who get a minority of votes can be appointed. This means stiffer competition and smaller incumbent rents due to the decreased entry barriers ( Myerson, 1993 and Ferejohn, 1986). Hereafter we will refer to this situation as the “barrier to entry” effect.
Referring to the electoral formula, in majoritarian representations, when individual candidates are voted for, there is a direct link between individual performance and reappointment (accountability): the valuation of representatives is based on their ability to represent the interests of the community. Thus, the incumbent faces strong incentives not to act in a corrupt manner in order to maximize the probability of re-election. On the contrary, in proportional systems voters vote for a list of candidates drawn up by political parties, without expressing a preference for any particular candidate: the incentive for corruption is higher than in a majoritarian system ( Persson and Tabellini, 1999a, Persson and Tabellini, 1999b and Persson and Tabellini, 2000). Hereafter we will refer to this situation as the “accountability” effect.
Hence, the impact of electoral systems on corruption is complex: if the barriers to entry effect dominate the accountability effect, majoritarian systems will be more corrupt than proportional ones; otherwise, the reverse happens. The empirical works of Persson et al. (2003), Gagliarducci et al. (2011) and Kunicova and Rose-Ackerman (2005) suggest that countries with proportional systems have much more widespread corruption than countries with majoritarian systems. Chang and Golden (2007) have found that, both at cross-national and at national (Italian) level, open-list PR systems (which allows voters to select individual candidates from party lists) is associated with greater corruption than closed-list systems (where candidate selection is controlled by the national party leadership) once the district sizes exceed a certain threshold.
The theoretical literature seems to confirm that the direct effect of electoral systems on corruption depends on contrasting forces; thus, empirical analysis has the task of specifying the impact of these forces.
So far, the literature has assigned only a marginal weight to the role of political competition in the relationship between electoral system and corruption; the mentioned role of political competition represents the value added of our paper. In this regards two aspects have to be underlined. The first aspect is the link between party competition and corruption and we hypothesize that it may influence the effect of the electoral system on corruption: this is what we call the indirect effect of electoral rule on corruption. Political competition is defined as the competition among political parties to collect votes at elections; it is, therefore, the competition for political power ( Bardhan and Yang, 2004). 4 As a determinant of corruption, political competition is viewed as the accountability for incumbents ( Persson et al., 1997): an intense political competition implies that the incumbent politician is more accountable for his actions in office: the incumbent has an incentive for good performance, or he can be easily removed and replaced ( Mulligan and Tsui, 2006). 5 Otherwise, if competition in the votes market is viewed as competition in the goods market ( Stigler, 1972), an intense political competition may also lead to a low probability of re-election for the incumbent, as for a firm that may lose a share of the market if the latter becomes more competitive; in this case, an incumbent can act in a myopic manner, maximizing rents during his remaining time in office. To sum up, also the overall effect of political competition on corruption is complex and difficult to define.
The other fundamental aspect is the relationship between electoral systems and political competition. To the best of our knowledge, there are no theoretical or empirical analysis that shed light on how the degree of proportionality of the electoral system determines the degree of competition among political parties. By affecting the party's formation, different electoral rules produce different levels of competition among parties. According to Duverger's (1972) Law, majority rules lead to a two-party system, while proportional systems favour multi-party systems and thus competition among many political bodies. However, Duverger's Law links the electoral system to the number of political parties competing at elections, not to their relative size. Based on the definition given above, political competition may be interpreted as the competition among firms in the goods market: the more competitive the parties, the more responsive the political system will be to the desires of the majority. In this case, political competition is similar to economic competition: political effectiveness is an increasing function of the size of a political party. Therefore, a larger number of competing political parties is certainly a necessary condition for high political competition, but the relative size of the political party is the key to define the degree of political competition in the votes market.
The joint analysis of these relationships allows us to formulate the hypothesis that, in studying the effect of electoral systems on corruption, the role of political competition must be considered. More precisely, the hypothesis being tested is that the electoral system degree of proportionality6 affects corruption even through the degree of political competition among political parties. Direct and indirect effects may affect corruption in the same direction or in the opposite direction according to how political competition reacts to variations in the degree of proportionality of the electoral rule. In this regard, various matching possibilities can be identified that drive the total effect of the degree of proportionality of the electoral system on corruption: the indirect effect of political competition may reinforce or depress the direct effect.
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