Abstract
Objectives: It is critical to implement effective multiple countermeasures to
mitigate or retain the spread of pandemic influenza. We propose a mathematical
pandemic influenza model to assess the effectiveness of multiple countermeasures
implemented in 2009.
Methods: Age-specific parameters, including the transmission rate, the proportion
of asymptomatic individuals, the vaccination rate, the social distancing rate,
and the antiviral treatment rate are estimated using the least-square method
calibrated to the incidence data.
Results: The multiple interventions (intensive vaccination, social distancing,
antivrial treatment) were successfully implemented resulting in the dramatic
reduction in the total number of incidence.
Conclusion: The model output is sensitive to age-specific parameters and this
leads to the fact that a more elaborate age group model should be developed and
extensive further studies must be followed.