The results look correct to me. Keep in mind that ‘Qty In Picking’ is not the same as ’Qty Distributed’. In Picking is what is already released but Qty Distributed is what is on unreleased distributions.
As I was explaining yesterday, your quantity on hand Is the same as the quantity distributed. Therefore you have 0 adjusted quantity on hand regardless of ‘qty in picking’.
This means the replenish quantity suggested will certainly be the same as your stock model ‘fill to’ quantity even if you are excluding the in picking. If you release the distribution and re-run replenish (using the exclusion on in picking), you should get the results you were expecting.