Substantial savings could be achieved in every year if enrollees could be switched to their lowestcost
plan. Cumulative savings over the three year period from this change would be approximately
$1,312 per person, or 34% of the total baseline OOP cost. The total saving from moving each
enrollee to the average of her ve lowest-cost plans is $1,006 or 77% of the total overspending. The
savings from removing inattention begin in 2007 with a total saving of approximately $11 per person
and rise to $98 per person in 2008 and $52 per person in 2009. Overall the model predicts that the
average consumer saves $162 cumulatively across the three years when frictions are removed, or
12.3% of total overspending. While these savings are non-trivial, they do represent a fairly small
proportion of total overspending. This is unsurprising given that consumers rarely choose the
lowest-cost plan available when they do actively choose. We should not expect our simulations to
bring overspending below the level reached by observed switchers in the data; that level, dened as