In order to develop a spatially specific understanding of agricultural suitability and
productivity, we apply an agro-ecological zone (AEZ) analysis to California’s landscape.
We employ statistical analyses to define AEZ types, based on four categories of
geophysical factors—climate, topography, soils, and water. Seeking to optimize the
correlations of specific crops around specific zones, while minimizing the number of
zones, we arrive at a total number of 100 AEZs. Then, we graph existing crop data by
AEZ to determine a correlation of crop types against the AEZ-defined landscape.
An AEZ analysis at this resolution can serve as the basis for a wide range of potential
applications. Based on crop-landscape suitability correlations, we can project the
spatially specific satisfaction of eater demand under various market-basket scenarios;
and based on detailed definitions of agro-ecological types, we can assess the implications
of shifts in any of the underlying geophysical factors.
In this paper we then examine one application of this AEZ analysis. We apply the climate
change research described by Katharine Hayhoe and partners in Emissions pathways,
climate change, and impacts on California to the state’s agricultural landscape. We find
that the total acreage for AEZs that serve as prime farmland will decrease significantly,
while the acreage associated with AEZs that define relatively marginal farmlands will
increase. In sum, the quality of farmland exhibits significant degradation on a statewide
basis.