The resilience of the financial markets is a new feature of the 2008-09 recession. It is
attributable to the reforms and consolidation of the banking sector after the 2001 financial
crisis (BRSA, 2009; Bredenkamp et al., 2009). These reforms were at the core of the
post-2001 stabilisation programme. They involved stronger capital structures, changes in
the banking law, and better risk management and supervision. The harmonisation of
financial regulations, in line with the EU Directives and best-practice international
standards, supported this modernisation. In addition, Turkish banks were not exposed to
toxic assets, the share of foreign exchange positions in the banks’ balance sheets decreased before the crisis, and the loan-deposit ratio was well below 100%. The capital
adequacy ratio remained well above the required levels (around 20%). Banks enjoyed large
capital buffers and sound liquidity due to strong profitability. Their profits declined
in 2008, but rebounded in 2009, thanks to net interest income as lower funding costs
following monetary easing were only partly passed to offered loans and to a lesser extent
due to net trading income (CBRT, 2009a). Even so, the ratio of non-performing loans (NPL)
increased, peaking at 5.4% in October 2009 which was higher by 2.2 percentage points than
a year before. The largest increase in NPL was observed for consumer loans (especially on
credit cards) and for corporate loans for small and medium-size enterprises.
Another remarkable feature of the recent recession is the lack of a strong pick-up in
inflation (Figure 1.4). In contrast to past episodes, inflation remained in check, and it even
declined in the first phase of the recession. This was possible thanks to the credible
monetary policy framework and the relatively small depreciation of the nominal effective
exchange rate. The moderation in inflation was in addition supported by indirect tax cuts
and lower international commodity prices.
Following the pattern of previous recessions, the current account balance improved.
Important reasons for this are the decline in domestic demand and oil prices which offset
the effects of the fall in foreign demand and limited exchange rate depreciation. Compared
with past downturns, the scale of the current account improvement was one of the largest,
even though the process was slightly delayed. The narrowing of the current account deficit
and the repatriation of saving from abroad along with channelling cash savings into the
system (which is believed to be the explanation of the large net errors and omissions
position – Figure 1.8) eased current account deficit financing needs.