China is home to one-fifth of the world’s population and that population is increasingly urban. The
landscape is also urbanizing. Although there are studies that focus on specific elements of urban
growth, there is very little empirical work that incorporates feedbacks and linkages to assess the
interactions between the dynamics of urban growth and their environmental impacts. In this study, we
develop a system dynamics simulation model of the drivers and environmental impacts of urban
growth, using Shenzhen, South China, as a case study. We identify three phases of urban growth and
develop scenarios to evaluate the impact of urban growth on several environmental indicators: land use,
air quality, and demand for water and energy. The results show that all developable land will be urban
by 2020 and the increase in the number of vehicles will be a major source of air pollution. Demand for
water and electricity will rise, and the city will become increasingly vulnerable to shortages of either.
The scenarios also show that there will be improvements in local environmental quality as a result of
increasing affluence and economic growth. However, the environmental impacts outside of Shenzhen
may increase as demands for natural resources increase and Shenzhen pushes its manufacturing
industries out of the municipality. The findings may also portend to changes other cities in China and
elsewhere in the developing world may experience as they continue to industrialize
China is home to one-fifth of the world’s population and that population is increasingly urban. Thelandscape is also urbanizing. Although there are studies that focus on specific elements of urbangrowth, there is very little empirical work that incorporates feedbacks and linkages to assess theinteractions between the dynamics of urban growth and their environmental impacts. In this study, wedevelop a system dynamics simulation model of the drivers and environmental impacts of urbangrowth, using Shenzhen, South China, as a case study. We identify three phases of urban growth anddevelop scenarios to evaluate the impact of urban growth on several environmental indicators: land use,air quality, and demand for water and energy. The results show that all developable land will be urbanby 2020 and the increase in the number of vehicles will be a major source of air pollution. Demand forwater and electricity will rise, and the city will become increasingly vulnerable to shortages of either.The scenarios also show that there will be improvements in local environmental quality as a result ofincreasing affluence and economic growth. However, the environmental impacts outside of Shenzhenmay increase as demands for natural resources increase and Shenzhen pushes its manufacturingindustries out of the municipality. The findings may also portend to changes other cities in China andelsewhere in the developing world may experience as they continue to industrialize
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