2. How to recognize sustainable development? Looking for indicators
2.1. The difficulty: so many systems and variables to watch
The world around us is a complex adaptive system composed of a multitude of systems that interact in various ways. While each has a certain measure of autonomy, each also depends on the functions of other systems, and plays a part in supporting other systems and the functioning of the total system. Plants recycle carbon dioxide—a waste product of all organisms and human technology—into biomass with the help of solar energy. Biomass serves as food, fodder and fuel for animals and humans. Microorganisms in soil and water decompose wastes into their mineral constituents, which then serve as plant nutrients. Cells cooperate in specialized organs like the heart or liver, roots or flowers. The different organs cooperate to make an organism a viable system in its particular environment. Human individuals form systems such as families, communities, organiza- tions, corporations, states and cultures. When we speak of sustainable development, we clearly have to include environmental, economic, technological, social, political and psychological aspects. The corresponding systems are linked in various and often crucial ways in one complex total system.
Recognizing patterns: understanding from a few indicators
A deeper look at the world reveals many relationships and component systems that are important to the operation and viability of the total system, even though they are not immediately obvious. A systems view is, therefore, required for capturing and understanding essential relationships.
The crucial part is identifying the essential relationships in a system. This requires a process of aggregation and condensation of available information, and the directed search for missing information needed for a comprehensive description of the system. This process of systems analysis is guided by the particular task, and the knowledge and experience of the analysts. It requires choice and selection at every stage. A circumspect and self-critical approach by analysts is essential. It should be coupled with independent analysis by others with different points of view, representing in particular the interests of those who may be affected by policy decisions. The result of this effort is some kind of a model—a mental model, a verbal description, or a more formal mathematical or computer model. This model is then used to identify indicators providing essential information about the system.
The process of condensing large amounts of information to a recognizable pattern of a few indicators is not unique to systems analysis. It is actually accomplished continuously by each of us. It is only in this way that we can comprehend events around us and respond appropriately. Indicators facilitate orientation in a complex world.
We live by such indicators. A smile signals friendliness; a gray sky, possible rain; a red traffic light, danger of collision; the hands of a watch, the time of day; a high body temperature, illness; rising unemployment, social trouble. The more complex the little world in which each of us lives, the more indicators we have to watch. If we want to assess how we are doing as individuals or as society, we have to look at indicators that provide relevant information about current and possible future developments.
Indicators summarize complex information of value to the observer
Indicators are our link to the world. They condense its enormous complexity to a manageable amount of meaningful information, to a small subset of observations informing our decisions and directing our actions. If we have learned to watch the relevant indicators, we can understand and cope with our dynamic environment. If we follow the wrong signals, we get confused or misled, responding inappropriately, against our intrinsic interests and intentions, going in a direction in which we don’t want to go.
Indicators represent valuable information. In the course of growing up, in our formal education, and in learning to cope with our specific personal and professional environment we have learned the meaning and significance of the indicators we use in our daily lives. The indicators we watch mean something to us, they are of value to us because they tell us some- thing that is in some way important to us. They help us to construct a picture of the state of our environment on which we can base intelligent decisions to protect and promote what we care about. Indicators, therefore, are also an expression of values.
Being fully informed means watching relevant indicators for all vital aspects of a development
Essential indicators are not always obvious. Learning to handle a complex system means learning to recognize a specific set of indicators, and to assess what their current state means for the health, or viability, of the system. Often this learning of indicators is intuitive, informal, subconscious: a mother learning to recognise and to respond to the signals from her newborn baby, or a farmer learning to recognize the signals from the animals, plants and soils under his or her care.
Intuitive learning is not sufficient for handling many of the complex systems that humans have constructed, such as airplanes, production systems, and the economy. In fact, such systems require specific instruments providing indicator information to the humans in charge of them, such as air speed indicators, pressure and temperature gauges, cost-of-living and employment indicators, or the Dow-Jones index. Essential indicators are often not obvious or intuitive. Sometimes they are eventually revealed by trial and error. Often, we have to search for them, based on our mental model of the system and its processes.
Two types of indicators: for the viability of a system and for its contribution to the performance of another system
Indicator sets about a given system are determined by two distinct requirements: (1) they have to provide vital information providing a picture about the current state and corresponding viability of that system; and (2) they have to provide sufficient information about the system’s contribution to the performance of other systems that depend on them. This is particularly obvious where humans try to manage systems for their own goals and interests. Here, they need indicators not only to inform them of the state of the system they are managing (e.g., a forest, an airplane), but also relevant indicators to successfully intervene and correct system behaviour in accordance with given objectives, and to determine the relative success of this intervention (e.g., maximizing economic yield, reaching a given destination). In other words, indicator sets are determined by (1) the system itself, and (2) the interests, needs, or objectives of the system(s) depending on them.
In complex real systems, this is a recursive relationship: systems depend on other systems that depend on yet another set of systems, and so on. The general relationship is shown in Fig. 2.
An airplane is a good example of this dual role of indicators. There are basically two groups of instruments providing information about (1) the current state and functional integrity of the airplane itself, and (2) its position and heading with respect to the destination chosen by the pilot. Moreover, these indicators will not all be of equal importance to the pilot and to the operation of the airplane. Some of these, like airspeed and altitude indicators, require continuous attention, while others, like fuel and oil pressure gauges, are only needed for occasional checks.
The human societal system, its component systems, and the resource and environmental system on which they depend, are complex dynamic systems. Just like the pilots of aircraft, the human individuals and organizations who run these systems need comprehensive sets of indicators providing essential information about (1) the state (and corresponding viability) of these systems themselves, and (2) about their position with respect to individual and societal goals. The latter point means that human goals and values figure prominently in the definition of indicator sets of human societal development, and in the attention focused on each of the indicators.